Convention conventional wisdom dictates a media saturated event that leads to a marked bump in the polls The attention drawn to them by the press on speeches and platforms and to real or imagined controversies are long cherised staples of the pageant. But all this is wrong in the modern age.  Yes, some attention will lead to some spike in the polls; but by and large, the individuals and the parties have settled as well delivered their message; so all this attention gathering leads not to much except to frustrate journalists.  This odd anachronistic institution does little to advance the passions of either party. The conventions do serve one objective, unite the base, and in this sense the Democratic Party meeting should be a success. The Republican party meeting will not have as much of an impact since MCCain going early to the well of negative campaigning accomplished as much. Interestingly enough, McCain's VP choice may present some problems, from chosing a pro-choicer to someone with little experience. Unlike Biden, I do not think there is a safe pick amomg the republicans. So I predict a plus 5 Obama advantage after the convention which will dissipate after the Republican convention. The net result is that we will be where we are and have been summer all summer long: a close race where republicans will be required to win just about every toss-up state to prevail, and the convention itself will remain a distant memory.    

Gallup tracking shows a 5 point swing in two days-my best guess is that there was a one day outier that is affecting the results-we shall find out in two days. Diageo, on the other hand, has Obama ahead by 4 in the just listed poll. What is utterly amazing is that Obama leads a poll where the respondents stated that they voted for Bush over Kerry 48-35. In other words in a poll that is slanted +10 R, Obama leads by 4. I also must wonder if there is something wrong with this poll; but even if the slant is half of what is listed you may be seeing the beginning of the end of the Bush/McCain regime.    

In a close election I figure McCain will have to win the following dead heat states: VA, OH, COL, NEV and FL. Fl and VA may well go R due to historical leanings though the $ spent in FL and the rapidly changing demos of VA may alter that. Note to O- Kaine will abolutely have no impact in the state. OH truly is tight- the economy vs. the Bradley effect. Appalachia vs. Illinois influence- and frankly, the OH voter is as unpredictable as their thinking. OH was one of the few states that Bush did worse last election. Is this a trend? However, the dimwit voters may confuse McCain with McKinley. For now, I say OH is R despite same day registrations voting day.  COL looks like it has all the indications of being D. The negatives are that it is an evangelical and military state. The positives, everything else is D. The convention may swing the state; and if not the water issue will certainly will.  I say this is O's firewall. NV should also go O because of unionization and GOTV efforts. This last two states are two D trending states that may benefit with a good VP selection. If it is a VA pick, I hope it is a Webb, who may actually swing the state, unlike Kaine, and that way Kaine can appoint the replacement and thereby keeping the senate seat in D hands.    

Today, Talking Points Memo takes the pulse of the campaigns and questions whether the Obama has a set message apart from 'change' similar to McCain 'I'm a strong leader.' Apart from raising the negatives of McCain and raising the possibilty of more wars and deficits- the change message follows that by changing we improve the government and the economy. McCain will not. He will continue with divisive issues and bankrupt the U.S. Obama should argue that everybody's America would improve if he is elected (now I see where the Messiah talking point originated). If you believes things can improve, then Obama is your vote.        

In this post I will try to cover several issues concerning the horse race numbers. First let look at Ohio. Rasmussen has McCain ahead of Obama by 10. The number does not run against Rasmussen other Ohio polling. Without pressing, the lead is 6. Prior monthly polls have the lead at 1 or 2. So essentially the shift is a 4 point shift - pretty much between the MOE range and Obama having lost some of his luster. Nevertheless, has anybody noticed how Obama can increase his popularity with a notch at any given time? BTW- Rasmussen is the only outfit that shows McCain consistently ahead of Obama so his weighing is obviously different than others. An intesting question would be why leaners trend towards McCain- an obvious answer is that while the Republican party has suffered loses in affiliation, the new independents lean conservative and McCain is a good fit for them.  I think polls this year are inaccurate because of the Bradley effect and the new voters surge; however, it is the only thing we have - the RCP average is specially helpful as it incorporates all the adjustmensts done by the different polling outfits in this difficult polling season.  I think Ohio would ultimately go McCain becasue of Appalachia unless 1) it is a landslide (which is a big possibility) or 2) Hillary is in the ticket (my best guess is yes).
Virginia is true a tossup (I live here) but I think McCain will prevail because of the Bradley effect since it clearly happened once before(Wilder).
Florida is in play only if Hillary is part of the ticket. Rasmussen now has Obama ahead by 1.
Ultimately, the election will be decided in Colorado where Obama has a strong advantage in structure, money and demographics. I do not foresee Michigan flipping at all.
The party that wins election would be the party that has won the most the last 100 years. Right now both parties are tied 48-48.
One more observation, after 7-8 months of running one would have thought the McCain operation would have been smoother. There is no reason to think they will improve in the next three months and will probably continue campaigning negatively.        

What kind of perverse jurisprudence Justice Scalia advocates in the latest Gitmo ruling? According the judge, applying the basic right of habeas corpus to all individuals in U.S. custody and in U.S. permanent soil "will almost certainly cause more Americans to be killed." With all due respect to the soldiers who have died, what kind of intellectual vacuousness does this represent? The idea is repugnant to scholastic study. In no way or fashion can one ascertain a future condition based on a predicated past. What if could be shown that the respect of human rights would lead instead to less soldiers killed, would Scalia then have to reverse himself? Let's apply this "legal principle" to every issue- minds ponder whether buying oil leads to the unwarranted death of soldiers; better yet, going to war without provocation obviously leads to more Americans soldiers getting killed than would otherwise, so this war must be unconstitutional. The indolent mind here represents a repeat of lack of legal priciple shown in Bush v. Gore.  Scalia does not use reason in his opinions, he first come to a decision and then works backwards to justify it. Scalia is an intellectual thug. To be clear, the decision today is very similar to Marburry- essentially the Court is disabusing any notion that the other two branches of government can exclude it from weighing in on, of all things, judicial matters.    

My favorite whipping boy wrote such a bad column that it is probably creating laughter across newspaper boardrooms in the country. Oddly the column gets some basic things right (raising gas tax would reduce demand; ethanol is not a panacea), but it the tenor of the column  that shows the markings of an inerudite pundit. Without further ado:
1-Oil exploration is closed in many areas in the country because "exaggerated environmental, strong prejudice against oil companies and sheer stupidity"- so irrational exaggerations and prejudices are not sheerly stupid- I wonder what other stupid reasons he is talking about (not that I agree with the premise as we shall see)- so if we listen to Samuelson- the best we can do is exert long-term influence which MAY result in affecting the markets if we are lucky (no word on what happens if we are not lucky-LOL)-
2- Increasing production may stabilize output (OR NOT!)- what the hell does he mean?
3- No one knows how much oil we have.
4- Perhaps oil prices will drop (OR NOT).
So his column is a rambling speculation that his views may or may not work; but he knows this: American public opinion is wrong- his views? they may or may not be stupid.        

Tracking poll just released. Obama first lead in a while. I recognize that I cannot be objective but every time the 5'7" John McCain speaks I get shills in my spine. And now we are learning the guy is not the sharpest knife in the drawer. McCain makes Dole (whom I liked) look good. It is no wonder Frank Lutz, who has been remarkably prescient in past elections, is already calling the race for Obama.  The D party nominates very competent candidates for the presidency only to lose to empty suits in the general. I happen to think that Hillary may be more competent (who really knows) but sadly Americans vote for the person they want to have a beer with. In this sense, Obama beats McCain and Hillary.